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What the markets expect
900M 50.8%
Next is 100M at 49.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
900M50.8%50.8%14.4¢ bid, 87.2¢ askpolled, 6 h ago87.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)900M50.8%Polymarket 50.8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 87.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
900M
50.8%
50.8%
14.4¢ bid, 87.2¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
87.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
900M
50.8%
Polymarket 50.8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 87.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 900M
- Last price
- 50.8%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 87.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 14.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $4K
100M49.5%49.5%46¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 6 h ago53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)100M49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
100M
49.5%
49.5%
46¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
100M
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100M
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $24K
800M38.5%38.5%19¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 6 h ago58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)800M38.5%Polymarket 38.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
800M
38.5%
38.5%
19¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
800M
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800M
- Last price
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $2K
500M32.5%32.5%25¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 6 h ago40¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $250 (2.50x)500M32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
500M
32.5%
32.5%
25¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
40¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
500M
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500M
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $11K
1.5B31.3%31.3%3.9¢ bid, 58.6¢ askpolled, 6 h ago58.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $171 (1.71x)1.5B31.3%Polymarket 31.3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 58.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $171 (1.71x)
1.5B
31.3%
31.3%
3.9¢ bid, 58.6¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
58.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $171 (1.71x)
1.5B
31.3%
Polymarket 31.3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 58.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $171 (1.71x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1.5B
- Last price
- 31.3%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 58.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $171 (1.71x)
- Volume
- $1K
300M30%30%21¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 6 h ago39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)300M30%Polymarket 30%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
300M
30%
30%
21¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
300M
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 300M
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $5K
1B30%30%10¢ bid, 49.9¢ askpolled, 6 h ago49.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)1B30%Polymarket 30%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 49.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
1B
30%
30%
10¢ bid, 49.9¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
49.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
1B
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 49.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1B
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 49.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
600M28.5%28.5%17¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 6 h ago40¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $250 (2.50x)600M28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
600M
28.5%
28.5%
17¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
40¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
600M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 600M
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $2K
700M26.5%26.5%14¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 6 h ago39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)700M26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
700M
26.5%
26.5%
14¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
700M
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 700M
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $5K
1.2B7.8%7.8%6.1¢ bid, 9.4¢ askpolled, 6 h ago9.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)1.2B7.8%Polymarket 7.8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
1.2B
7.8%
7.8%
6.1¢ bid, 9.4¢ ask
polled, 6 h ago
9.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
1.2B
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1.2B
- Last price
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled 6 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,064 (10.6x)
- Volume
- $789
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 900M
- 100M
- 800M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 900M leads at 50.8%. Next is 100M at 49.5%. $57K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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