The Prediction Markets

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 47 days
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

25 bps increase 56.8%

Next is No change at 37.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

25 bps increase 56.8%No change 37.5%50+ bps increase 3.5%50+ bps decrease 1.5%25 bps decrease 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
25 bps increase
56.8%
Polymarket 56%(56.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
56.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
No change
37.5%
Polymarket 37%(37.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
50+ bps increase
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
50+ bps decrease
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps decrease
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: rbnz.govt.nz

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25 bps increase
  • No change
  • 50+ bps increase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?". 25 bps increase leads at 56.8%. Next is No change at 37.5%. $43K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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