The Prediction Markets

Rhode Island Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Reed, 19+ pts 93.3%

Next is Reed, 17+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Reed, 19+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 19+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 17+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 17+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 23+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 23+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 21+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 21+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 25+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 25+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 27+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 27+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$866
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 29+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 29+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30%+
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reed, 31+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 31+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 33+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 33+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Reed, 35+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 35+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Kalshi
Reed, 37+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 37+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Polymarket
Reed, 39+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reed, 39+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Rhode Island Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Reed, 19+ pts
  • Reed, 17+ pts
  • Reed, 23+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Reed, 19+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rhode Island Senate margin of victory". Reed, 19+ pts leads at 93.3%. Next is Reed, 17+ pts at 90.1%. $17K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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