The Prediction Markets

Rhode Island's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Magaziner, 7+ pts 94.2%

Next is Magaziner, 10+ pts at 93.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Magaziner, 7+ pts
94.2%
Kalshi 94.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 7+ pts
Last price
94.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 10+ pts
93.6%
Kalshi 93.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 10+ pts
Last price
93.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
90.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 13+ pts
91.7%
Kalshi 91.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 13+ pts
Last price
91.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 16+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 16+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 19+ pts
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 19+ pts
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 22+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 22+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 25+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 25+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Magaziner, 28+ pts
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 28+ pts
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
23.9%
Polymarket 23.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $410 (4.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
23.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24.4¢
Sell Yes
23.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$410 (4.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Magaziner, 31+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 31+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi
Magaziner, 34+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magaziner, 34+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Magaziner, 7+ pts
  • Magaziner, 10+ pts
  • Magaziner, 13+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Magaziner, 7+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rhode Island's 2nd District margin of victory". Magaziner, 7+ pts leads at 94.2%. Next is Magaziner, 10+ pts at 93.6%. $26K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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