The Prediction Markets

Rivian total vehicles delivered in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$80K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 40000 96%

Next is Above 42000 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 40000
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40000
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 42000
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 42000
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 44000
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 44000
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 38000
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 45s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 38000
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48000
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48000
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46000
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46000
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 54000
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54000
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 52000
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 52000
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50000
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50000
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58000
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58000
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 56000
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56000
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60000
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60000
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62000
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62000
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64000
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64000
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$882
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 66000
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66000
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$791
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 68000
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 68000
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70000
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70000
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 72000
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 72000
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 74000
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 74000
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 40000
  • Above 42000
  • Above 44000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rivian total vehicles delivered in 2026". Above 40000 leads at 96%. Next is Above 42000 at 96%. $80K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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