The Prediction Markets

Roch Cholowsky: Debut Date

Closes
Nov 1, 2031, in 61 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Nov 1, 2031 90%

Next is Before Nov 1, 2030 at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2031
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2031
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2030
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2030
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2030
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2030
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2030
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2030
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2029
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2029
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2029
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2029
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2028
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2028
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2029
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2029
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2028
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2028
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2028
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2028
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2027
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Nov 1, 2031
  • Before Nov 1, 2030
  • Before Aug 1, 2030

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Roch Cholowsky: Debut Date". Before Nov 1, 2031 leads at 90%. Next is Before Nov 1, 2030 at 88%. $24K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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