The Prediction Markets

Roy Lichtenstein's “Reflections on ‘Painter and Model’” Sale Price

Closes
Nov 17, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

25m-$30m 34.6%

Next is 30m-$35m at 22.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

25m-$30m 34.6%30m-$35m 22.8%35m+ 16.6%20m-$25m 14.2%20m 11.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
25m-$30m
34.6%
Polymarket 36.5%(34.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
25m-$30m
Last price
36.5%
Fair, margin removed
34.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
30m-$35m
22.8%
Polymarket 24%(22.7% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
30m-$35m
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
22.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
35m+
16.6%
Polymarket 17.5%(16.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
35m+
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
16.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
20m-$25m
14.2%
Polymarket 15%(14.2% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
20m-$25m
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
14.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
20m
11.8%
Polymarket 12.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
20m
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25m-$30m
  • 30m-$35m
  • 35m+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Roy Lichtenstein's “Reflections on ‘Painter and Model’” Sale Price". 25m-$30m leads at 34.6%. Next is 30m-$35m at 22.8%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

Roy Lichtenstein's “Reflections on ‘Painter and Model’” (Lot 4A) is expected to be sold at Sotheby's The Now and Contemporary Evening Auction on November 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Roy Lichtenstein's “Reflections on ‘Painter and Model’”. If the final sale price falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "<$20m". The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sotheby's (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/the-now-contemporary-evening-auction-2/reflections-on-painter-and-model).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Roy Lichtenstein's “Reflections on ‘Painter and Model’” Sale Price Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets