The Prediction Markets

Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 8, 2026

Closed
Oct 9, 2026
Traded
$46K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 16 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Patient Zero
31.7%
Kalshi 37.5%(31.6% fair)polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
37.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.6%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dai Dai
29.1%
Kalshi 34.5%(29.1% fair)polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dai Dai
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 3: nUsrYVxrDwI]
22.4%
Kalshi 26.5%(22.4% fair)polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 3: nUsrYVxrDwI]
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.4%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
World's Greatest!
5.5%
Kalshi 6.5%(5.5% fair)polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
World's Greatest!
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 5: hLOheGDwD_0]
3%
Kalshi 3.5%(3% fair)polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 5: hLOheGDwD_0]
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AH HA
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AH HA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
BbY WOW
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BbY WOW
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dope Girl
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dope Girl
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW)
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Janice STFU
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Janice STFU
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Todo Lo Fue
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todo Lo Fue
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
WTF GOIN
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
WTF GOIN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
You Are My Lady
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 391 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
You Are My Lady
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 16 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Patient Zero
  • Dai Dai
  • Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 3: nUsrYVxrDwI]

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 8, 2026". Patient Zero last traded at 31.7%. Next is Dai Dai at 29.1%. $46K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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