The Prediction Markets

Rybakina vs Kawa

Starts in 5 h 3 minKickoff
Traded
$92K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rybakina 91.9%

Next is Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 87.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rybakina
91.9%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 92%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elena Rybakina
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 91¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 92¢.

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 Winner
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 Winner
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 23.5
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 21.5
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 22.5
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Katarzyna Kawa
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katarzyna Kawa
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rybakina
  • Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Live prices for Rybakina

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rybakina vs Kawa". Rybakina leads at 91.9%. Next is Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 87.5%. $92K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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