The Prediction Markets

Sebastian Walcott: Debut Date

Closes
Nov 1, 2028, in 25 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Nov 1, 2028 84%

Next is Before Aug 1, 2028 at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2028
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2028
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2028
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2028
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2028
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2028
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2027
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2027
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Nov 1, 2028
  • Before Aug 1, 2028
  • Before May 1, 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Sebastian Walcott: Debut Date". Before Nov 1, 2028 leads at 84%. Next is Before Aug 1, 2028 at 79%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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