The Prediction Markets

Senate Combo: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Dems sweep 57.6%

Next is Reps MI, Dems MN & NH at 19.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Dems sweep 57.6%Reps MI, Dems MN & NH 19.5%Dems MI & NH, Reps MN 8%Dems MI & MN, Reps NH 5.3%Reps MI & MN, Dems NH 4.9%3 others 4.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Dems sweep
57.6%
Polymarket 64.5%(57.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems sweep
Last price
64.5%
Fair, margin removed
57.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MI, Dems MN & NH
19.5%
Polymarket 21.8%(19.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MI, Dems MN & NH
Last price
21.8%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MI & NH, Reps MN
8%
Polymarket 9%(8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MI & NH, Reps MN
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MI & MN, Reps NH
5.3%
Polymarket 5.9%(5.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MI & MN, Reps NH
Last price
5.9%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MI & MN, Dems NH
4.9%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MI & MN, Dems NH
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps sweep
2.9%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps sweep
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MI, Reps MN & NH
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MI, Reps MN & NH
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MI & NH, Dems MN
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MI & NH, Dems MN
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dems sweep
  • Reps MI, Dems MN & NH
  • Dems MI & NH, Reps MN

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Senate Combo: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire". Dems sweep leads at 57.6%. Next is Reps MI, Dems MN & NH at 19.5%. $15K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets