The Prediction Markets

Senate control favorite on November 2?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Yes 97.8%

Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Yes 97.8%No 2.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
97.8%
Polymarket 97.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
97.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: predictionmarketodds.com

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Senate control favorite on November 2?". Yes leads at 97.8%. $17K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Democratic Party" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Republican Party" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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