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What the markets expect
Lorenzo Lucca 46.4%
Next is Randal Kolo Muani at 46.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Lorenzo Lucca46.4%46.4%0.4¢ bid, 92.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago92.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Lorenzo Lucca46.4%Polymarket 46.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Lorenzo Lucca
46.4%
46.4%
0.4¢ bid, 92.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
92.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Lorenzo Lucca
46.4%
Polymarket 46.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lorenzo Lucca
- Last price
- 46.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $75
Randal Kolo Muani46.2%46.2%0.7¢ bid, 91.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago91.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Randal Kolo Muani46.2%Polymarket 46.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Randal Kolo Muani
46.2%
46.2%
0.7¢ bid, 91.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
91.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Randal Kolo Muani
46.2%
Polymarket 46.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Randal Kolo Muani
- Last price
- 46.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 91.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $55
Loïs Openda45.8%45.8%0.4¢ bid, 91.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago91.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Loïs Openda45.8%Polymarket 45.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Loïs Openda
45.8%
45.8%
0.4¢ bid, 91.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
91.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Loïs Openda
45.8%
Polymarket 45.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Loïs Openda
- Last price
- 45.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 91.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $55
Riccardo Orsolini42.9%42.9%0.4¢ bid, 85.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago85.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $117 (1.17x)Riccardo Orsolini42.9%Polymarket 42.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Riccardo Orsolini
42.9%
42.9%
0.4¢ bid, 85.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
85.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Riccardo Orsolini
42.9%
Polymarket 42.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Riccardo Orsolini
- Last price
- 42.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $117 (1.17x)
- Volume
- $55
Santiago Giménez36.4%36.4%0.4¢ bid, 72.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $138 (1.38x)Santiago Giménez36.4%Polymarket 36.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Santiago Giménez
36.4%
36.4%
0.4¢ bid, 72.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Santiago Giménez
36.4%
Polymarket 36.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Santiago Giménez
- Last price
- 36.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $138 (1.38x)
- Volume
- $55
Christian Pulisic36%36%0.7¢ bid, 71.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago71.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $140 (1.40x)Christian Pulisic36%Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Christian Pulisic
36%
36%
0.7¢ bid, 71.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
71.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Christian Pulisic
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Christian Pulisic
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $140 (1.40x)
- Volume
- $67
Marcus Thuram36%36%0.7¢ bid, 71.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago71.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $140 (1.40x)Marcus Thuram36%Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Marcus Thuram
36%
36%
0.7¢ bid, 71.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
71.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Marcus Thuram
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $140 (1.40x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marcus Thuram
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $140 (1.40x)
- Volume
- $61
Moise Kean35.7%35.7%0.3¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 1 min ago71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Moise Kean35.7%Polymarket 35.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Moise Kean
35.7%
35.7%
0.3¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Moise Kean
35.7%
Polymarket 35.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moise Kean
- Last price
- 35.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $55
Donyell Malen31.5%31.5%12¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 1 min ago51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Donyell Malen31.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Donyell Malen
31.5%
31.5%
12¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
51¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Donyell Malen
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donyell Malen
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $5K
Lautaro Martínez13%13%11¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Lautaro Martínez13%Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Lautaro Martínez
13%
13%
11¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Lautaro Martínez
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lautaro Martínez
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $471
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Paulo Dybala5%5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Paulo Dybala5%Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Paulo Dybala
5%
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Paulo Dybala
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paulo Dybala
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $404
Rasmus Højlund5%5%0.4¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)Rasmus Højlund5%Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Rasmus Højlund
5%
5%
0.4¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Rasmus Højlund
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rasmus Højlund
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $78
Kenan Yıldız4.6%4.6%0.1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Kenan Yıldız4.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kenan Yıldız
4.6%
4.6%
0.1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kenan Yıldız
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kenan Yıldız
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $67
Artem Dovbyk4.5%4.5%0.8¢ bid, 8.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)Artem Dovbyk4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Artem Dovbyk
4.5%
4.5%
0.8¢ bid, 8.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Artem Dovbyk
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Artem Dovbyk
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,220 (12.2x)
- Volume
- $63
Gonçalo Ramos4.4%4.4%0.8¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Gonçalo Ramos4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gonçalo Ramos
4.4%
4.4%
0.8¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gonçalo Ramos
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gonçalo Ramos
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $330
Santiago Castro4.4%4.4%0.3¢ bid, 8.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)Santiago Castro4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Santiago Castro
4.4%
4.4%
0.3¢ bid, 8.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Santiago Castro
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Santiago Castro
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,176 (11.8x)
- Volume
- $418
Gianluca Scamacca4.1%4.1%0.4¢ bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Gianluca Scamacca4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Gianluca Scamacca
4.1%
4.1%
0.4¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Gianluca Scamacca
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gianluca Scamacca
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
- Volume
- $135
Francesco Camarda3.4%3.4%0.4¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Francesco Camarda3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Francesco Camarda
3.4%
3.4%
0.4¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Francesco Camarda
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Francesco Camarda
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $55
Valentín Castellanos3.3%3.3%0.3¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Valentín Castellanos3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Valentín Castellanos
3.3%
3.3%
0.3¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Valentín Castellanos
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Valentín Castellanos
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $55
Kevin De Bruyne3.2%3.2%0.2¢ bid, 6.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)Kevin De Bruyne3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kevin De Bruyne
3.2%
3.2%
0.2¢ bid, 6.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kevin De Bruyne
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kevin De Bruyne
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,613 (16.1x)
- Volume
- $55
Jonathan David2.8%2.8%0.4¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)Jonathan David2.8%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Jonathan David
2.8%
2.8%
0.4¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Jonathan David
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jonathan David
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $211
Andrea Pinamonti2.7%2.7%1.4¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Andrea Pinamonti2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Andrea Pinamonti
2.7%
2.7%
1.4¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Andrea Pinamonti
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andrea Pinamonti
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $82
Ademola Lookman2.2%2.2%0.4¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)Ademola Lookman2.2%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Ademola Lookman
2.2%
2.2%
0.4¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Ademola Lookman
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ademola Lookman
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $147
Rafael Leão2.1%2.1%0.2¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Rafael Leão2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Rafael Leão
2.1%
2.1%
0.2¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Rafael Leão
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rafael Leão
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $55
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: legaseriea.it
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Lorenzo Lucca
- Randal Kolo Muani
- Loïs Openda
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Serie A Player of the Season (2026-27)". Lorenzo Lucca leads at 46.4%. Next is Randal Kolo Muani at 46.2%. $8K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 30, 2027.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026-27 Serie A Player of the Season award, as awarded by Lega Serie A. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by Lega Serie A. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 Serie A season is cancelled, or there is otherwise no such award announced by June 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lega Serie A (https://www.legaseriea.it); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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