The Prediction Markets

Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League

Closes
Jun 15, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Frosinone 50.3%

Next is Fiorentina at 50%. The venues differ most on Atalanta (Polymarket 25%, Kalshi 13%), a 12-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Frosinone
50.3%
Polymarket 50.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Frosinone
Last price
50.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
Fiorentina
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fiorentina
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lazio
49.8%
Polymarket 49.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lazio
Last price
49.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Udinese
49.8%
Polymarket 49.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Udinese
Last price
49.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino
49.7%
Polymarket 49.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino
Last price
49.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
Brighton
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brighton
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sassuolo
37.2%
Polymarket 37.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sassuolo
Last price
37.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
AC Milan
36.6%
Polymarket 36.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
AC Milan
Last price
36.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Polymarket
Napoli
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Napoli
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46.2¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Polymarket
Atalanta
19%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atalanta
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atalanta
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$781
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

Show 45 more outcomes
Como
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Como
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Egnatia Rrogozhine
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egnatia Rrogozhine
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
IC Escaldes
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
IC Escaldes
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jablonec
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jablonec
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kauno
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kauno
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kuopion Palloseura
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kuopion Palloseura
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Riga FC
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riga FC
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Truidense
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Truidense
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thun
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thun
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Uni Craiova
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uni Craiova
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Banja Luka
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Banja Luka
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Crvena Zvezda
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crvena Zvezda
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Iberia
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iberia
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kairat
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kairat
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Monaco
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monaco
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Kalshi
Ajax
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ajax
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Braga
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Braga
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Cagliari
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cagliari
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket
Freiburg
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Freiburg
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Brann
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brann
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Trabzonspor
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trabzonspor
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Roma
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roma
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Polymarket
Copenhagen
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Copenhagen
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Panathinaikos
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panathinaikos
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Gent
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gent
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Heart of Midlothian
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Heart of Midlothian
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Juventus
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juventus
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Polymarket
Bologna
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bologna
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Enschede
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enschede
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lincoln Red Imps
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lincoln Red Imps
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Midtjylland
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midtjylland
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pafos
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pafos
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lecce
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lecce
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
CSKA Sofia
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
CSKA Sofia
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Getafe
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Getafe
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hajduk
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hajduk
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lugano
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lugano
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nordsjaelland
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nordsjaelland
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Aarhus
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aarhus
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mjallby
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mjallby
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Parma
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parma
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Polymarket
Monza
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Monza
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Polymarket
Genoa
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Genoa
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$426
Trade this on Polymarket
Inter Milan
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inter Milan
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Venezia
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venezia
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 16, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 16, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Frosinone
  • Fiorentina
  • Lazio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Frosinone for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League". Frosinone leads at 50.3%. Next is Fiorentina at 50%. $11K has traded across 55 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 15, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team earns a place in the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League through the 2026-27 Serie A season. Qualifying routes that count include the team’s final 2026-27 Serie A league position or winning a domestic cup competition that carries a 2027-28 UEFA Conference League place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution is based on the competition to which the listed team is allocated by the final 2026-27 Serie A standings, the 2026-27 domestic cup results, and the 2026-27 UEFA competition winners. A place obtained by playing and advancing through the UEFA qualifying rounds held after the domestic season does not count, and movement between competitions caused by those qualifying rounds has no bearing on resolution. Once it becomes mathematically impossible for the listed team to earn a 2027-28 UEFA Conference League place by these routes, the associated market will immediately resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 Serie A season is cancelled or postponed past June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET such that the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League places cannot be determined, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or Serie A; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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