The Prediction Markets

Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A

Closed
May 31, 2026
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Palermo
46.7%
Polymarket 50.5%(46.7% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Palermo
Last price
50.5%
Fair, margin removed
46.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Monza
38.8%
Polymarket 42%(38.8% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Monza
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
38.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Catanzaro
9%
Polymarket 9.7%(9% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Catanzaro
Last price
9.7%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juve Stabia
5.5%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juve Stabia
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Palermo
  • Monza
  • Catanzaro

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A". Palermo last traded at 46.7%. Next is Monza at 38.8%. $63K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the 2025-2026 league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in Serie A for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Serie B, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by Serie A and Serie B. If the 2025-2026 Serie B season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Serie A and Serie B. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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