The Prediction Markets

Seth Hernandez: Debut Date

Closes
Nov 1, 2029, in 37 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Nov 1, 2029 93%

Next is Before May 1, 2029 at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2029
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2029
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2029
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2029
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2029
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2029
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2028
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2028
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2028
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2028
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2028
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2028
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2027
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2027
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Nov 1, 2029
  • Before May 1, 2029
  • Before Aug 1, 2029

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Seth Hernandez: Debut Date". Before Nov 1, 2029 leads at 93%. Next is Before May 1, 2029 at 86%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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