Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?". 170+ leads at 89.5%. Next is Above 170 at 89%. $11K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The total is the sum of the daily figures for every date in the period. Daily figures are the total transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that IMF PortWatch publishes for each date. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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