The Prediction Markets

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz week of November 16?

Closes
Nov 23, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
10 min ago
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What the markets expect

22+ 82.5%

Next is 24+ at 51%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 10 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
22+
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
22+
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
24+
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
24+
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
26+
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
26+
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
28+
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
28+
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
30+
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
30+
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
32+
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
32+
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 22+
  • 24+
  • 26+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz week of November 16?". 22+ leads at 82.5%. Next is 24+ at 51%. $1K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The total is the sum of the daily figures for every date in the period. Daily figures are the total transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that IMF PortWatch publishes for each date. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz week of November 16? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets