The Prediction Markets

Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 11, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $480 billion 99%

Next is Above $460 billion at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $480 billion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $480 billion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $460 billion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $460 billion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $470 billion
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $470 billion
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $490 billion
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $490 billion
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $500 billion
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $500 billion
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $510 billion
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $510 billion
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $480 billion
  • Above $460 billion
  • Above $470 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026". Above $480 billion leads at 99%. Next is Above $460 billion at 95%. $11K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 11, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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