The Prediction Markets

Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3

Closes
Mar 5, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $110 billion 94%

Next is Above $113 billion at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $110 billion
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $110 billion
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $113 billion
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $113 billion
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $116 billion
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $116 billion
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $119 billion
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $119 billion
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $122 billion
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $122 billion
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $125 billion
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $125 billion
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $110 billion
  • Above $113 billion
  • Above $116 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3". Above $110 billion leads at 94%. Next is Above $113 billion at 77%. $5K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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