The Prediction Markets

Simi Valley mayoral election winner?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Michelle Dracoulis 64%

Next is Stephanie Cameron at 54.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Michelle Dracoulis
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Dracoulis
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephanie Cameron
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephanie Cameron
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Casey Farrell
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Casey Farrell
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kareem Jubran
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kareem Jubran
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Abby McKibben
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abby McKibben
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Dudman
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Dudman
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Gibson
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Gibson
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Judge
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Judge
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Jessop
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Jessop
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Wayne Hampton Holland III
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wayne Hampton Holland III
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Clarizio
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Clarizio
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jess Burns
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jess Burns
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall Callaghan
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall Callaghan
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
James Randall
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Randall
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Wayne Johnston
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wayne Johnston
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket
Sally Doyle
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sally Doyle
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toby Thorpe
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toby Thorpe
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ventura County Clerk-Recorder and Registrar of Voters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michelle Dracoulis
  • Stephanie Cameron
  • Dee Dee Cavanaugh

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Michelle Dracoulis for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Simi Valley mayoral election winner?". Michelle Dracoulis leads at 64%. Next is Stephanie Cameron at 54.5%. $56K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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