The Prediction Markets

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $6.2 trillion 99%

Next is Above $6.3 trillion at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $6.2 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.2 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$373
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.3 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.3 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.4 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.4 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$665
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.5 trillion
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.5 trillion
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.6 trillion
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.6 trillion
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.7 trillion
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.7 trillion
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.8 trillion
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.8 trillion
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.9 trillion
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.9 trillion
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$704
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.0 trillion
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.0 trillion
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.1 trillion
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.1 trillion
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.2 trillion
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.2 trillion
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.3 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.3 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $6.2 trillion
  • Above $6.3 trillion
  • Above $6.4 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026". Above $6.2 trillion leads at 99%. Next is Above $6.3 trillion at 99%. $21K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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