The Prediction Markets

Snap average daily active users in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 5, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 488 million 92%

Next is Above 492 million at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 488 million
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 488 million
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 492 million
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 492 million
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 496 million
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 496 million
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$743
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500 million
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500 million
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 504 million
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 504 million
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 508 million
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 508 million
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 488 million
  • Above 492 million
  • Above 496 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Snap average daily active users in fiscal 2026". Above 488 million leads at 92%. Next is Above 492 million at 82%. $6K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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