The Prediction Markets

Snap daily active users in Q3

Closes
Feb 24, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 486 million 99%

Next is Above 488 million at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 486 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 486 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 488 million
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 488 million
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 492 million
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 492 million
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 490 million
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 490 million
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 494 million
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 494 million
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 498 million
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 498 million
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$888
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500 million
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500 million
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 502 million
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 502 million
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 504 million
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 504 million
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 496 million
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 496 million
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 506 million
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 506 million
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 486 million
  • Above 488 million
  • Above 492 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Snap daily active users in Q3". Above 486 million leads at 99%. Next is Above 488 million at 89%. $7K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 24, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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