Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
ngel Di María 65%
Next is Olivier Giroud at 65%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
ngel Di María65%65%65¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 1 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)ngel Di María65%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
ngel Di María
65%
65%
65¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
ngel Di María
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ngel Di María
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $10
Olivier Giroud65%65%65¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 1 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Olivier Giroud65%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Olivier Giroud
65%
65%
65¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Olivier Giroud
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Olivier Giroud
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $1K
Manuel Neuer47%47%46¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 1 min ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Manuel Neuer47%Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Manuel Neuer
47%
47%
46¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Manuel Neuer
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Manuel Neuer
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $643
Cristiano Ronaldo43%43%43¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Cristiano Ronaldo43%Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Cristiano Ronaldo
43%
43%
43¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Cristiano Ronaldo
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $2K
Thiago Silva41%41%39¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 1 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Thiago Silva41%Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Thiago Silva
41%
41%
39¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Thiago Silva
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thiago Silva
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $22
Luka Modrić33.5%33.5%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Luka Modrić33.5%Kalshi 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Luka Modrić
33.5%
33.5%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Luka Modrić
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luka Modrić
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
Sergio Ramos31%31%30¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Sergio Ramos31%Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Sergio Ramos
31%
31%
30¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Sergio Ramos
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sergio Ramos
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $1K
Luis Suárez26.5%26.5%26¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 1 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Luis Suárez26.5%Kalshi 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Luis Suárez
26.5%
26.5%
26¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Luis Suárez
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luis Suárez
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Kyle Walker17.5%17.5%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Kyle Walker17.5%Kalshi 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kyle Walker
17.5%
17.5%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kyle Walker
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Walker
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
Marco Reus13.5%13.5%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Marco Reus13.5%Kalshi 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Marco Reus
13.5%
13.5%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Marco Reus
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Reus
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
Riyad Mahrez10%10%9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Riyad Mahrez10%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Riyad Mahrez
10%
10%
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Riyad Mahrez
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Riyad Mahrez
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Neymar8%8%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Neymar8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Neymar
8%
8%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Neymar
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Neymar
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Lionel Messi5%5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lionel Messi5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lionel Messi
5%
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lionel Messi
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lionel Messi
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $94
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, NBC Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- ngel Di María
- Olivier Giroud
- Manuel Neuer
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Soccer Retirements before Jul 1, 2027". ngel Di María leads at 65%. Next is Olivier Giroud at 65%. $7K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More sports markets
See all sports markets- F1 Drivers' ChampionKimi Antonelli98.1%$204.6M traded
- 2027 Pro Football ChampionSan Francisco17%$194.9M traded
- Pro Baseball ChampionMilwaukee64.6%$133.8M traded
- College Football National Championship WinnerGeorgia16%$63.8M traded
- 2027 Pro Basketball ChampionOklahoma City24%$44.9M traded
- MVP Winner?Josh Allen27%$36.6M traded