The Prediction Markets

Sonora Governor Election Winner

Closes
Jun 7, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
46 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 63.2%

Next is Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 21.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 63.2%Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 21.7%Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 6.3%Javier Lamarque Cano 4%Natalia Rivera Grijalva 0.9%14 others 3.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
63.2%
Polymarket 67.5%(63.1% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
Last price
67.5%
Fair, margin removed
63.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
21.7%
Polymarket 23.2%(21.7% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 30.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $331 (3.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
Last price
23.2%
Fair, margin removed
21.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
30.2¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$331 (3.31x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
6.3%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Lamarque Cano
4%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Lamarque Cano
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket
Ernesto Gándara Camou
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ernesto Gándara Camou
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Polymarket
Lilly Téllez García
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lilly Téllez García
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Scott Sánchez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Scott Sánchez
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$855
Trade this on Polymarket
Damián Zepeda Vidales
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Damián Zepeda Vidales
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Polymarket
Guadalupe María Soto
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guadalupe María Soto
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Polymarket
Omar del Valle Colosio
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Omar del Valle Colosio
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogelio Díaz Brown
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogelio Díaz Brown
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Polymarket
Víctor Hugo Celaya
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Víctor Hugo Celaya
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Polymarket
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$431
Trade this on Polymarket
Patricia Mercado Castro
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patricia Mercado Castro
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lorenia Valles Sampedro
  • Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
  • Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Sonora Governor Election Winner". Lorenia Valles Sampedro leads at 63.2%. Next is Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 21.7%. $44K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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