The Prediction Markets

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

Closes
Jan 20, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$115K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 98%

Next is Above -0.4% at 94.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.4%
94.6%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.4%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.2%
92.3%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.2%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.0%
78.4%
Polymarket 78.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 80.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0%
Last price
78.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80.2¢
Sell Yes
76.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.6%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
4.7-5.0%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 15.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $662 (6.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.7-5.0%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.1¢
Sell Yes
11.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$662 (6.62x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.8%
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.4-4.7%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4-4.7%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.0%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1-4.4%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1-4.4%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 1.2%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6-2.9%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6-2.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2-3.5%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2-3.5%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5-3.8%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.8%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.6%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9-3.2%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9-3.2%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8-4.1%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8-4.1%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: statssa.gov.za
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above -0.4%
  • Above -0.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Africa Annual Inflation 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 98%. Next is Above -0.4% at 94.6%. $115K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2027.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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