The Prediction Markets

South Carolina Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wilson, 1+ pts 90.5%

Next is Wilson, 4+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wilson, 1+ pts
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 1+ pts
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilson, 4+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 4+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilson, 7+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 7+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilson, 10+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 10+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wilson, 13+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 13+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wilson, 16+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 16+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilson, 19+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 19+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 0-5%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wilson, 22+ pts
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 22+ pts
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Johnson, 2+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Johnson, 2+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25%+
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25%+
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Polymarket
Wilson, 25+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson, 25+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wilson, 1+ pts
  • Wilson, 4+ pts
  • Wilson, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Wilson, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Governor margin of victory". Wilson, 1+ pts leads at 90.5%. Next is Wilson, 4+ pts at 83%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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