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What the markets expect
Wilson, 1+ pts 90.5%
Next is Wilson, 4+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Wilson, 1+ pts90.5%Not listed90.5%87¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, just now94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Wilson, 1+ pts90.5%Kalshi 90.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Wilson, 1+ pts
90.5%
Not listed
90.5%
87¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, just now
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Wilson, 1+ pts
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 90.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Wilson, 4+ pts83%Not listed83%78¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Wilson, 4+ pts83%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Wilson, 4+ pts
83%
Not listed
83%
78¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Wilson, 4+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
Wilson, 7+ pts75%Not listed75%74¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just now75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Wilson, 7+ pts75%Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Wilson, 7+ pts
75%
Not listed
75%
74¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Wilson, 7+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 7+ pts
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $326
Wilson, 10+ pts59%Not listed59%47¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, just now59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Wilson, 10+ pts59%Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Wilson, 10+ pts
59%
Not listed
59%
47¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, just now
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Wilson, 10+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 10+ pts
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $333
Wilson, 13+ pts38%Not listed38%30¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, just now41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Wilson, 13+ pts38%Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Wilson, 13+ pts
38%
Not listed
38%
30¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, just now
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Wilson, 13+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 13+ pts
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $584
Republican 10-15%30%30%21¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Republican 10-15%30%Polymarket 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Republican 10-15%
30%
30%
21¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Republican 10-15%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 10-15%
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $4K
Republican 15-20%25.5%25.5%22¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Republican 15-20%25.5%Polymarket 25.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Republican 15-20%
25.5%
25.5%
22¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Republican 15-20%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 15-20%
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $4K
Republican 5-10%22.5%22.5%21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Republican 5-10%22.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Republican 5-10%
22.5%
22.5%
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Republican 5-10%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 5-10%
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $4K
Wilson, 16+ pts22%Not listed22%16¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, just now27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Wilson, 16+ pts22%Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Wilson, 16+ pts
22%
Not listed
22%
16¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, just now
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Wilson, 16+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 16+ pts
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $659
Wilson, 19+ pts15%Not listed15%4¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just now15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Wilson, 19+ pts15%Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wilson, 19+ pts
15%
Not listed
15%
4¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wilson, 19+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 19+ pts
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $172
Show 8 more outcomesHide 8 outcomes
Republican 20-25%14.5%14.5%12¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Republican 20-25%14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Republican 20-25%
14.5%
14.5%
12¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Republican 20-25%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 20-25%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1K
Wilson, 22+ pts9.8%Not listed9.8%— bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, just now9.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Wilson, 22+ pts9.8%Kalshi 9.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Wilson, 22+ pts
9.8%
Not listed
9.8%
— bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, just now
9.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Wilson, 22+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 22+ pts
- Last price
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $34
Johnson, 2+ pts6.9%Not listed6.9%— bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 9 min ago6.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Johnson, 2+ pts6.9%Kalshi 6.9%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Johnson, 2+ pts
6.9%
Not listed
6.9%
— bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 9 min ago
6.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Johnson, 2+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Johnson, 2+ pts
- Last price
- 6.9%
- As of
- Polled 9 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 25%+5.1%5.1%0.6¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed9.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)Republican 25%+5.1%Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Republican 25%+
5.1%
5.1%
0.6¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
9.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Republican 25%+
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 25%+
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $877
Wilson, 25+ pts4.1%Not listed4.1%1¢ bid, 7.2¢ askpolled, just now7.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)Wilson, 25+ pts4.1%Kalshi 4.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Wilson, 25+ pts
4.1%
Not listed
4.1%
1¢ bid, 7.2¢ ask
polled, just now
7.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Wilson, 25+ pts
4.1%
Kalshi 4.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wilson, 25+ pts
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,389 (13.9x)
Republican 0-5%2.6%2.6%1¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed4.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)Republican 0-5%2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Republican 0-5%
2.6%
2.6%
1¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
4.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Republican 0-5%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-5%
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 0-5%Polymarket: “Democrat 0-5%”1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Republican 0-5%1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Republican 0-5%
Polymarket: “Democrat 0-5%”
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Republican 0-5%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-5%
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 5%+0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Democrat 5%+0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Democrat 5%+
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Democrat 5%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 5%+
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: South Carolina State Election Commission
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Wilson, 1+ pts
- Wilson, 4+ pts
- Wilson, 7+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Wilson, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Governor margin of victory". Wilson, 1+ pts leads at 90.5%. Next is Wilson, 4+ pts at 83%. $26K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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