The Prediction Markets

South Carolina Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$204K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Graham, 1+ pts 78%

Next is Graham, 3+ pts at 63%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 19 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Graham, 1+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 1+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham, 3+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 3+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham, 5+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 5+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham 0-5%
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 0-5%
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham, 7+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%live, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 7+ pts
Price
33%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham 5-10%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 5-10%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham, 9+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%live, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 9+ pts
Price
20%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrews Wins
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrews Wins
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham, 11+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 11+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrews, 1+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrews, 1+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Graham, 13+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 13+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham, 15+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 15+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham, 17+ pts
4.8%
Kalshi 4.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 17+ pts
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham 10-15%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 10-15%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham 15-20%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 15-20%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham, 19+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham, 19+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham 20-25%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 20-25%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham 30%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 30%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Graham 25-30%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham 25-30%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Graham, 1+ pts
  • Graham, 3+ pts
  • Graham, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Graham, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Senate margin of victory". Graham, 1+ pts leads at 78%. Next is Graham, 3+ pts at 63%. $204K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets