The Prediction Markets

South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Honeycutt, 1+ pts 66%

Next is Honeycutt, 4+ pts at 55%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Honeycutt, 1+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 1+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Honeycutt, 4+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 4+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Honeycutt, 7+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 7+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Honeycutt, 10+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 10+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Honeycutt, 13+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 13+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Honeycutt, 16+ pts
11.8%
Kalshi 11.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 16+ pts
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Honeycutt, 19+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honeycutt, 19+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Honeycutt, 1+ pts
  • Honeycutt, 4+ pts
  • Honeycutt, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Honeycutt, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory". Honeycutt, 1+ pts leads at 66%. Next is Honeycutt, 4+ pts at 55%. $25K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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