The Prediction Markets

South Carolina's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Climer, 1+ pts 90.1%

Next is Climer, 3+ pts at 87.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Climer, 1+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 93.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 1+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.2¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 3+ pts
87.6%
Kalshi 87.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 93.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 3+ pts
Last price
87.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.1¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 6+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 6+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 9+ pts
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 9+ pts
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 12+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 12+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 15+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 15+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
29.6%
Polymarket 29.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
29.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
27.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Climer, 18+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 18+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Climer, 21+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 21+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 24+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 24+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Climer, 27+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 27+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Climer, 30+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climer, 30+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Climer, 1+ pts
  • Climer, 3+ pts
  • Climer, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Climer, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina's 5th District margin of victory". Climer, 1+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Climer, 3+ pts at 87.6%. $29K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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