The Prediction Markets

South Carolina's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Clyburn, 19+ pts 86%

Next is Clyburn, 22+ pts at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Clyburn, 19+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 19+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 22+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 22+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 25+ pts
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 25+ pts
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 28+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 28+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 31+ pts
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 31+ pts
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 34+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 34+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Clyburn, 37+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 37+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Clyburn, 40+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 40+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
13.4%
Polymarket 13.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $439 (4.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
13.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$439 (4.39x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Polymarket
Clyburn, 43+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clyburn, 43+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Clyburn, 19+ pts
  • Clyburn, 22+ pts
  • Clyburn, 25+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Clyburn, 19+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina's 6th District margin of victory". Clyburn, 19+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Clyburn, 22+ pts at 78%. $12K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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