The Prediction Markets

South Carolina's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Fry, 3+ pts 91.4%

Next is Fry, 6+ pts at 87.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fry, 3+ pts
91.4%
Kalshi 91.4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 3+ pts
Last price
91.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 6+ pts
87.6%
Kalshi 87.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 93.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 6+ pts
Last price
87.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.2¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 9+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 9+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 12+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 12+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 15+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 15+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 18+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 18+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fry, 21+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 21+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
22.2%
Polymarket 22.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 22.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $441 (4.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
22.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.7¢
Sell Yes
21.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$441 (4.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Fry, 24+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 24+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 27+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 27+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Fry, 30+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 30+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
Fry, 33+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fry, 33+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fry, 3+ pts
  • Fry, 6+ pts
  • Fry, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fry, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina's 7th District margin of victory". Fry, 3+ pts leads at 91.4%. Next is Fry, 6+ pts at 87.6%. $13K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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