The Prediction Markets

South Dakota Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rhoden, 6+ pts 88.7%

Next is Rhoden, 9+ pts at 78.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rhoden, 6+ pts
88.7%
Kalshi 88.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 94.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 6+ pts
Last price
88.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.3¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 9+ pts
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 9+ pts
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 12+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 12+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 15+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 15+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 18+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 18+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 21+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 21+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rhoden, 24+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 24+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 10-15%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rhoden, 27+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 27+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 30+ pts
8.2%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 30+ pts
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Polymarket
Rhoden, 33+ pts
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 33+ pts
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhoden, 36+ pts
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhoden, 36+ pts
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-10%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$829
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rhoden, 6+ pts
  • Rhoden, 9+ pts
  • Rhoden, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Rhoden, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Dakota Governor margin of victory". Rhoden, 6+ pts leads at 88.7%. Next is Rhoden, 9+ pts at 78.5%. $24K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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