The Prediction Markets

South Dakota Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rounds, 3+ pts 88%

Next is Rounds, 5+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rounds, 3+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 3+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 5+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 94.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 5+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.4¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 7+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 7+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 9+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 9+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 11+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 11+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 13+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 13+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 15+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 15+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-10%
36.6%
Polymarket 36.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 37.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
36.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.1¢
Sell Yes
36.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rounds, 17+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 17+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 19+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 19+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$547
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Republican 10-15%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rounds, 21+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 21+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 23+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 23+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 25+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 25+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 27+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 27+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 31+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 31+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent Wins
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent Wins
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rounds, 29+ pts
5.2%
Kalshi 5.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 29+ pts
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rounds, 33+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 33+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rounds, 35+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rounds, 35+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: South Dakota Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rounds, 3+ pts
  • Rounds, 5+ pts
  • Rounds, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Rounds, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Dakota Senate margin of victory". Rounds, 3+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Rounds, 5+ pts at 83%. $41K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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