The Prediction Markets

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$497K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 65.0% 96%

Next is Above 70.0% at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 65.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 65.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70.0%
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70.0%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75.0%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75.0%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85.0%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85.0%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
50.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80.0%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80.0%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
50¢
Volume
$731
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90.0%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90.0%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100.0%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100.0%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 105.0%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105.0%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 35 more outcomes
3.0–3.4%
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0–3.4%
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.1%
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.1%
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5–2.9%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–2.9%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.2%
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.3%
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.3%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.4%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.4%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$877
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.6%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.6%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6% to 2.0%
20.9%
Kalshi 20.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
20.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.8%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.8%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 95.0%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 19s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 95.0%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
15¢
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6% to 3.0%
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.7%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.7%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.9%
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.9%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.1%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.1%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0–2.4%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.4%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5–3.9%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5–3.9%
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.2%
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.2%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0–4.4%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0–4.4%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.3%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.3%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5–4.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5–4.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.0%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bok.or.kr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 65.0%
  • Above 70.0%
  • Above 75.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 65.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?". Above 65.0% leads at 96%. Next is Above 70.0% at 87%. $497K has traded across 45 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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