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Best ask
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What the markets expect
7,800 to 7,999.99 22.9%
Next is 7,600 to 7,799.99 at 14.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
7,800 to 7,999.9922.9%24%22.9% fair23¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 3 h ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)7,800 to 7,999.9922.9%Kalshi 24%(22.9% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
7,800 to 7,999.99
22.9%
24%
22.9% fair
23¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
7,800 to 7,999.99
22.9%
Kalshi 24%(22.9% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,800 to 7,999.99
- Last price
- 24%
- Fair, margin removed
- 22.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $605K
7,600 to 7,799.9914.3%15%14.3% fair14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 3 h ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)7,600 to 7,799.9914.3%Kalshi 15%(14.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
7,600 to 7,799.99
14.3%
15%
14.3% fair
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
7,600 to 7,799.99
14.3%
Kalshi 15%(14.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,600 to 7,799.99
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $561K
8,000 to 8,199.9912.4%13%12.4% fair12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)8,000 to 8,199.9912.4%Kalshi 13%(12.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
8,000 to 8,199.99
12.4%
13%
12.4% fair
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
8,000 to 8,199.99
12.4%
Kalshi 13%(12.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,000 to 8,199.99
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $613K
7,400 to 7,599.997.6%8%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)7,400 to 7,599.997.6%Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
7,400 to 7,599.99
7.6%
8%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
7,400 to 7,599.99
7.6%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,400 to 7,599.99
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $547K
8,200 to 8,399.997.6%8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 3 h ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)8,200 to 8,399.997.6%Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
8,200 to 8,399.99
7.6%
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
8,200 to 8,399.99
7.6%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,200 to 8,399.99
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $402K
7,200 to 7,399.996.7%7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)7,200 to 7,399.996.7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
7,200 to 7,399.99
6.7%
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
7,200 to 7,399.99
6.7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,200 to 7,399.99
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $392K
6,800 to 6,999.992.9%3%2¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)6,800 to 6,999.992.9%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
6,800 to 6,999.99
2.9%
3%
2¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
6,800 to 6,999.99
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,800 to 6,999.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $368K
7,000 to 7,199.992.9%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)7,000 to 7,199.992.9%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
7,000 to 7,199.99
2.9%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
7,000 to 7,199.99
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7,000 to 7,199.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $342K
8,400 to 8,599.992.9%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)8,400 to 8,599.992.9%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
8,400 to 8,599.99
2.9%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
8,400 to 8,599.99
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,400 to 8,599.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $296K
6,400 to 6,599.991.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)6,400 to 6,599.991.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6,400 to 6,599.99
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6,400 to 6,599.99
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,400 to 6,599.99
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $310K
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
6,600 to 6,799.991.9%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)6,600 to 6,799.991.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
6,600 to 6,799.99
1.9%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
6,600 to 6,799.99
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,600 to 6,799.99
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $294K
9,000.01 or above1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)9,000.01 or above1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
9,000.01 or above
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
9,000.01 or above
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 9,000.01 or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $273K
3,999.99 or below1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)3,999.99 or below1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
3,999.99 or below
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
3,999.99 or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3,999.99 or below
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $464K
4,000 to 4,199.991%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,000 to 4,199.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,000 to 4,199.99
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,000 to 4,199.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,000 to 4,199.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $119K
4,200 to 4,399.991%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,200 to 4,399.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,200 to 4,399.99
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,200 to 4,399.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,200 to 4,399.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $108K
4,400 to 4,599.991%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,400 to 4,599.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,400 to 4,599.99
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,400 to 4,599.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,400 to 4,599.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $115K
4,600 to 4,799.991%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,600 to 4,799.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,600 to 4,799.99
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,600 to 4,799.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,600 to 4,799.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $121K
4,800 to 4,999.991%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,800 to 4,999.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,800 to 4,999.99
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,800 to 4,999.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,800 to 4,999.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $133K
5,000 to 5,199.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5,000 to 5,199.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,000 to 5,199.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,000 to 5,199.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,000 to 5,199.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $143K
5,200 to 5,399.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5,200 to 5,399.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,200 to 5,399.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,200 to 5,399.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,200 to 5,399.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $137K
5,400 to 5,599.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5,400 to 5,599.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,400 to 5,599.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,400 to 5,599.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,400 to 5,599.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $144K
5,600 to 5,799.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5,600 to 5,799.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,600 to 5,799.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,600 to 5,799.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,600 to 5,799.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $168K
5,800 to 5,999.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5,800 to 5,999.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,800 to 5,999.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5,800 to 5,999.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,800 to 5,999.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $196K
6,000 to 6,199.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)6,000 to 6,199.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
6,000 to 6,199.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
6,000 to 6,199.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,000 to 6,199.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $268K
6,200 to 6,399.990.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)6,200 to 6,399.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
6,200 to 6,399.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
6,200 to 6,399.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6,200 to 6,399.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $283K
8,600 to 8,799.990.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)8,600 to 8,799.990.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
8,600 to 8,799.99
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
8,600 to 8,799.99
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,600 to 8,799.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $291K
8,800 to 9,0000.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)8,800 to 9,0000.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,800 to 9,000
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
8,800 to 9,000
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8,800 to 9,000
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $293K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 7,800 to 7,999.99
- 7,600 to 7,799.99
- 8,000 to 8,199.99
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "S&P close price end of 2026?". 7,800 to 7,999.99 leads at 22.9%. Next is 7,600 to 7,799.99 at 14.3%. $8.0M has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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