The Prediction Markets

S&P price at year-end?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$49K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

6,900 or above 93%

Next is 7,000 or above at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
6,900 or above
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,900 or above
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,000 or above
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,000 or above
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,100 or above
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,100 or above
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Kalshi
7,200 or above
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,200 or above
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Kalshi
7,300 or above
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,300 or above
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,400 or above
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,400 or above
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,500 or above
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,500 or above
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,600 or above
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,600 or above
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,700 or above
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,700 or above
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
7,800 or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,800 or above
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
7,900 or above
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
7,900 or above
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,000 or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,000 or above
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,100 or above
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,100 or above
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Kalshi
8,200 or above
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,200 or above
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
8,400 or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,400 or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
8,300 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,300 or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
8,500 or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,500 or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Google Finance

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6,900 or above
  • 7,000 or above
  • 7,100 or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "S&P price at year-end? ". 6,900 or above leads at 93%. Next is 7,000 or above at 92%. $49K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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