The Prediction Markets

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Closes
Dec 11, 2026, in 49 days
Traded
$103K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Dec 11, 2026 93%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 86.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Dec 11, 2026
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 11, 2026
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
86.7%
Polymarket 86.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
86.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
92.9¢
Sell Yes
80.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 27, 2026
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 27, 2026
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 13, 2026
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 13, 2026
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 30, 2026
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 30, 2026
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SpaceX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Dec 11, 2026
  • June 30, 2027
  • Before Nov 27, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Dec 11, 2026 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "SpaceX Starship 15th launch?". Before Dec 11, 2026 leads at 93%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 86.7%. $103K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 11, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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