The Prediction Markets

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Chopsticks catch Starship? 71%

Next is November 30, 2026 at 68%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Chopsticks catch Starship?
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopsticks catch Starship?
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30, 2026
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Super Heavy booster explodes?
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Super Heavy booster explodes?
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Successful splash down?
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Successful splash down?
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$840
Trade this on Polymarket
November 15, 2026
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 15, 2026
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31, 2026
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31, 2026
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chopsticks catch Starship?
  • November 30, 2026
  • Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?". Chopsticks catch Starship? leads at 71%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 68%. $40K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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