The Prediction Markets

Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 37 days
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 13% 99%

Next is At least 15% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 13%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 13%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 15%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 15%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 14%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 14%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16%
88.5%
Kalshi 88.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16%
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 17%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 17%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18%
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18%
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 19%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 19%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 20%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 21%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 21%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Junta Electoral Central, Spanish Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 13%
  • At least 15%
  • At least 14%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 13% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?". At least 13% leads at 99%. Next is At least 15% at 98%. $35K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox receive a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to PP or Vox, including under any regional designation of either party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, or coalition agreements. The combined vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by PP and Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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