The Prediction Markets

Spanish general election: margin of victory

Closes
Nov 29, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

People's Party, 3-6% 31.7%

Next is People's Party, 6-9% at 29.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

People's Party, 3-6% 31.7%People's Party, 6-9% 29.1%People's Party, 0-3% 19%People's Party, 9-12% 8.9%PSOE, 0-3% 6.3%2 others 5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
People's Party, 3-6%
31.7%
Kalshi 25%(31.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
People's Party, 3-6%
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
31.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Kalshi
People's Party, 6-9%
29.1%
Kalshi 23%(29.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
People's Party, 6-9%
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Kalshi
People's Party, 0-3%
19%
Kalshi 15%(19% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
People's Party, 0-3%
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$915
Trade this on Kalshi
People's Party, 9-12%
8.9%
Kalshi 7%(8.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
People's Party, 9-12%
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
PSOE, 0-3%
6.3%
Kalshi 5%(6.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSOE, 0-3%
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Kalshi
People's Party, ≥12%
2.5%
Kalshi 2%(2.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
People's Party, ≥12%
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Kalshi
PSOE, 0-3%
2.5%
Kalshi 2%(2.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSOE, ≥3%
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ministerio del Interior, Junta Electoral Central

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • People's Party, 3-6%
  • People's Party, 6-9%
  • People's Party, 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Spanish general election: margin of victory". People's Party, 3-6% leads at 31.7%. Next is People's Party, 6-9% at 29.1%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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