The Prediction Markets

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Closes
Nov 29, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 21% 95%

Next is At least 23% at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 21%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 21%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 23%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 23%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 24%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 24%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 25%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 27%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 27%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
24-26%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
24-26%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
26-28%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
26-28%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Polymarket
28-30%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
28-30%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
At least 29%
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 29%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
30%+
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
30%+
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 30%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 31%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 31%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
24%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
24%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Junta Electoral Central, Spanish Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 21%
  • At least 23%
  • At least 24%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 21% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent". At least 21% leads at 95%. Next is At least 23% at 93%. $13K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets