The Prediction Markets

Spotify headcount in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 7100 86%

Next is Above 7150 at 80%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 7100
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7100
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7150
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7150
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7200
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7200
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7250
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7250
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7300
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7300
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7350
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7350
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7400
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7400
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7450
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7450
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 7100
  • Above 7150
  • Above 7200

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Spotify headcount in 2026". Above 7100 leads at 86%. Next is Above 7150 at 80%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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