The Prediction Markets

Spotify premium subscribers in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 330 million 97%

Next is Above 314 million at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 330 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330 million
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 314 million
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 314 million
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 318 million
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 318 million
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 308 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 308 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 312 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 312 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 316 million
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 316 million
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320 million
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320 million
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 322 million
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 322 million
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 324 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 324 million
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 326 million
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 326 million
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 328 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 328 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 330 million
  • Above 314 million
  • Above 318 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Spotify premium subscribers in 2026". Above 330 million leads at 97%. Next is Above 314 million at 70%. $11K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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