The Prediction Markets

Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth?

Closes
Oct 29, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

7% to 9% 33.7%

Next is 5% to 7% at 30%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

7% to 9% 33.7%5% to 7% 30%9% to 11% 17.4%11%+ 9.6%5% 9.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
7% to 9%
33.7%
Polymarket 41.5%(33.7% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
7% to 9%
Last price
41.5%
Fair, margin removed
33.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
5% to 7%
30%
Polymarket 37%(30% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
5% to 7%
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Polymarket
9% to 11%
17.4%
Polymarket 21.5%(17.4% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
9% to 11%
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket
11%+
9.6%
Polymarket 11.9%(9.6% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 23.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $429 (4.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
11%+
Last price
11.9%
Fair, margin removed
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$429 (4.29x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Polymarket
5%
9.3%
Polymarket 11.5%(9.3% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 21.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $457 (4.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
5%
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$457 (4.57x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7% to 9%
  • 5% to 7%
  • 9% to 11%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth?". 7% to 9% leads at 33.7%. Next is 5% to 7% at 30%. $5K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Starbucks' global comparable store sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets