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What the markets expect
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 82.4%
Next is AION 2 at 1.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 482.4%98%82.4% fair97¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 22s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 482.4%Kalshi 98%(82.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4
82.4%
98%
82.4% fair
97¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4
82.4%
Kalshi 98%(82.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4
- Last price
- 98%
- Fair, margin removed
- 82.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $3K
AION 21.7%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 22s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)AION 21.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
AION 2
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
AION 2
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AION 2
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $133
Apex Legends™0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Apex Legends™0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Apex Legends™
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Apex Legends™
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Apex Legends™
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
ARC Raiders0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)ARC Raiders0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
ARC Raiders
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
ARC Raiders
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ARC Raiders
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Battlefield™ 60.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Battlefield™ 60.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Battlefield™ 6
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Battlefield™ 6
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Battlefield™ 6
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Castlevania: Belmont's Curse0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Castlevania: Belmont's Curse0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Castlevania: Belmont's Curse
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Castlevania: Belmont's Curse
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Castlevania: Belmont's Curse
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Counter-Strike 20.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Counter-Strike 20.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Counter-Strike 2
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Counter-Strike 2
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Counter-Strike 2
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
DayZ0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)DayZ0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DayZ
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DayZ
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DayZ
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Dead by Daylight0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Dead by Daylight0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dead by Daylight
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dead by Daylight
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dead by Daylight
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Enshrouded0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Enshrouded0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Enshrouded
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Enshrouded
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Enshrouded
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Hood Warfare 20.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Hood Warfare 20.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hood Warfare 2
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hood Warfare 2
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hood Warfare 2
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Marvel Rivals0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Marvel Rivals0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Marvel Rivals
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Marvel Rivals
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marvel Rivals
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
over the hill0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)over the hill0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
over the hill
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
over the hill
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- over the hill
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Phantom Blade Zero0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Phantom Blade Zero0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Phantom Blade Zero
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Phantom Blade Zero
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Phantom Blade Zero
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Planet Zoo 20.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Planet Zoo 20.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Planet Zoo 2
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Planet Zoo 2
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Planet Zoo 2
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Risk of Rain 20.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Risk of Rain 20.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Risk of Rain 2
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Risk of Rain 2
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Risk of Rain 2
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Scam With Your Friends0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Scam With Your Friends0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Scam With Your Friends
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Scam With Your Friends
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scam With Your Friends
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Steam Deck0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Steam Deck0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Steam Deck
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Steam Deck
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steam Deck
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
WARDOGS0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)WARDOGS0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
WARDOGS
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
WARDOGS
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- WARDOGS
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Warframe0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Warframe0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Warframe
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Warframe
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Warframe
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Steam Weekly Top Sellers
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4
- AION 2
- Apex Legends™
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Steam: Weekly Top Seller ". Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 leads at 82.4%. Next is AION 2 at 1.7%. $35K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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