The Prediction Markets

Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$112K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

100M 68%

Next is 200M at 67.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
100M
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
200M
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
50M
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
50M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$981
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 100M
  • 200M
  • 50M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 100M leads at 68%. Next is 200M at 67.5%. $112K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More crypto markets

See all crypto markets