The Prediction Markets

SWALLOW!: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1K 93%

Next is 25k+ at 88.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1K
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
25k+
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k+
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
50k+
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
50k+
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3K
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3K
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$926
Trade this on Kalshi
200k+
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k+
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5K
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5K
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$744
Trade this on Kalshi
100k+
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k+
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 8K
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8K
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10K
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12K
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: hitsdailydouble.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1K
  • 25k+
  • 50k+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "SWALLOW!: First Week Album Equivalent Units". Above 1K leads at 93%. Next is 25k+ at 88.5%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets